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Insight | Time: Nov 3 2020 10:37AM
ACN price trend forecast in Nov
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Since Sep, ACN market maintained steady all the time. Prices moved up somewhat in end Sep stimulated by the maintenance of PetroChina Fushun, and later, prices stabilized again in Oct. The main reason was the balance between bulls and bears. In end Sep, this balance was broken affected by the maintenance plan of PetroChina Fushun, and bulls began to pull up prices. But some traders considered that the prices were dull to rise in Oct, and low offers continued to see, restraining the high prices. Therefore, the market returned to stabilize in Oct.

In Nov, from the view of feedstock market, propylene prices in Shandong has declined by 400yuan/mt to 7,100yuan/mt. Based on this, ACN costs are assessed at around 9,100uiam/mt, then some prices already see profits. Currently, propylene supply is relatively sufficient, and the upward space is limited, prices are supposed to be in weak consolidation in Nov.

From the perspective of supply, similar to Oct, Shanghai Secco plans to shut down its 260kta ACN unit around mid-Nov for one-month maintenance. Besides, the dredging and reconstruction work at Yangkou port continues to affect the ships to dock, so supply in Nantong of Jiangsu tends to tighten. Therefore, the bullish sentiment appears again in Nov. However, there are still opportunities for imports on concern about the firm RMB exchange rate. It is understood that some import orders are under negotiation, but pricing is difficult.

In terms of demand, ABS plant operating rate remains high. For acrylic fiber plants, operating rate remains though some yarn sales turn thinner. AM plant operating rate may reduce affected by its ordinary demand. Compared with Oct, demand for ACN may weaken slightly.

In general, bullish and bearish factors coexist. The bullish factors are dominated by the supply tightness expectation due to the shutdown of Shanghai Secco, and the larger space of market speculation. The bearish factors are the slightly weakening demand, imports and weak propylene. Nevertheless, as most plants take measures of output reduction at present and inventory pressure is not large, ACN prices still have the possibility to be stable to firm.
[RISK DISCLAIMER] All opinions, news, analysis, prices or other information contained on this report is provided by analyst of Zhejiang Huarui Information Consulting Co., Ltd (CCFGroup) as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. CCFGroup will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
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