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Insight | Time: May 4 2018 2:29PM
Analysis on productivity of CPL plants in 2017
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CPL capacity has kept increasing since CPL production technologies broke through in 2011. For one thing, it benefits from rising demand. For another thing, production technologies break through continuously. Sanning, Tianchen Yaolong, Shenma, Juhua and Hengyi optimize technologies and enlarge output through upgrading, and their actual capacities has exceeded the designed capacities. The figure below shows the productivity of CPL plants in Chinese mainland in 2017, in which the actual capacity is converted to the capacity in the whole year according to the startup time of new units.

CPL plants Production (kt) Capacity in end-2017 (kt/year) Apparent productivity (%) Actual capacity (ky/year) Actual productivity (%) Startup time of new units
Hengyi 256 300 85 220 116 Mid-Oct
Shenma 108 100 108 100 108  
Luxi 121 300 40 116.5 104 End-Nov
Tianchen Yaolong 290 280 104 280 104  
Risun 102 100 102 100 102  
Lanhua Sci-Tech 97 100 97 100 97  
Juhua 96 100 96 100 96  
Sanning 124 130 96 130 96  
Haili 363 400 91 400 91  
Baling Petrochemical 230 270 85 270 85  
Nanjing Fibrant 332 400 83 400 83  
Shenyuan 123 400 31 150 82 One in Jul, and one in Aug
Sinopec Shijiazhuang 72 100 72 100 72  
Fangming 91 200 46 200 46  
Yangquan 35 200 17 108 32 One in Mar, and one in Oct
Lubao 15 100 15 50 30 Jul
Total 2456 3480 71 2824.5 87  

The total CPL production was 2,456kt in 2017, and CPL plants could be divided into three levels according to production.

The first level: Haili, Nanjing Fibrant, Tianchen Yaolong, Hengyi and Baling Petrochemical.
The second level: Shenyuan, Lanhua Sci-Tech, Risun, Shenma, Luxi, Sanning, Fangming, Juhua and Sinopec Shijiazhuang.
The third level: Lubao and Yangquan.

The total production of Haili, Nanjing Fibrant, Tianchen Yaolong, Hengyi accounted for 50.5% of the total production in 2017. Shutdowns of the five CPL plants in the first level would result in large decrease of CPL supply, influencing CPL market greatly. Most new CPL plants started up in mid-late 2017, so capacities did not release completely, so the three levels would change in 2018.

Based on actual capacities, CPL plants could be divided into four levels according to actual productivity.

The first level: Hengyi, Shenma, Luxi, Tianchen Yaolong and Risun.
The second level: Lanhua Sci-Tech, Juhua, Sanning and Haili.
The third level: Baling Petrochemical, Nanjing Fibrant, Shenyuan and Sinopec Shijiazhuang
The fourth level: Yangquan and Lubao.

The actual productivity of Hengyi was the highest, and the units kept running in overloaded operation. Production of Shenma lifted after upgrading, and the units shut down sometimes, but the time was 3-5 days. Luxi’s old unit sustained running in overloaded operation, though it’s new unit did not run stably. Tianchen Yaolong’s production reached full capacity in the whole year though production reduced largely in Apr, breaking the record of the highest daily production of a single unit.

For units in the second level, the operation rate was relatively stable, and there were limited turnarounds, with stable supply.

Baling Petrochemical and Nanjing Fibrant’s units shut down accidentally many times in 2017, and the productivity was not as good as expected. Besides, affected by environmental problems, productivity of Yangquan and Lubao was low.

In summary, not considering quality, the productivity of most CPL plants increased evidently in 2017 except for several special occasions, as chip plants ran stably. Production of CPL plants may still be worth expecting in 2018 with the expectation of good demand. Besides, more deals are done in contract term, so the amount of products and the stability of quality are of great importance.

*Note: HS- high-speed spinning
   CS- conventional spinning
[RISK DISCLAIMER] All opinions, news, analysis, prices or other information contained on this report is provided by analyst of Zhejiang Huarui Information Consulting Co., Ltd (CCFGroup) as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. CCFGroup will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
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