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Insight | Time: Mar 1 2019 9:20AM
2019 cationic dyeable market forecast
 
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Price is expected to be consistent with cost.
Price of polyester feedstock cost was largely in range-bound in the first half of 2018 and experienced a sharp up-and-down in the second half of year.


Price of cationic dyeable products was more volatile in 2018 compared with 2017 amid sharply fluctuation on cost side in the second half of 2018.

In 2019, with rapidly increasing capacity and production on cationic dyeable market, especially the growth of direct-spun PFY, and the gradually disappearing of price differentiation, price of cationic dyeable products is anticipated to be fluctuated with polyester melting cost, with small influence from own seasonal demand change.


Unit changes in some plants, and the proportion of direct-spun keeps increasing.
Cationic dyeable units change in 2019. Old units like Lixin, Fudong, Huaxin, Donghua, Huahong and Sanfangxiang sustain normal production; Shenghong’s new 250KTA cationic dyeable direct-spun equipment has started production in end-2018, which is under stable operation now, and its original 80KTA cationic dyeable equipment has been shifted to produce semi-dull goods; partial capacity of Tongkun Hengbang’s new 300KTA unit in 2018 is used to produce cationic dyeable goods, while the production of cationic dyeable goods shrank in 2018, which may be adjusted with market supply/demand pattern in 2019. Hengsheng’s original 100KTA bright polyester unit has been changed to produce cationic dyeable goods. The small polymerization unit added in Xinfengming in end-2018 can produce cationic dyeable goods, which is supposed to make contribution to the cationic dyeable production in 2019. Besides, the cationic dyeable production of small polymerization in Hengyi and Wanwei is still anticipated to be adjusted according to market change.


Generally, cationic dyeable capacity and production is still expected to grow in 2019, and the production growth from POY may be huge, while the output increment of FDY and PSF should not be neglected too, which may witness apparent growth amid small cardinal number.


Cash flow is likely to shrink further.
Cash flow of cationic dyeable PFY moved down in 2018 compared with 2017, which is anticipated to be squeezed further in 2019 after direct-spun capacity and production ascended. Supply of SIPM in China may be hard to increase under environmental protection pressure, so import demand remains. From the angle of additives, production cost of cationic dyeable goods is hard to reduce too.

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