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Insight | Time: May 10 2019 3:09PM
ACN supply and demand amid the significant price increase
 
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After the Spring Festival, ACN was continuously in an upward trend thanks to the tight supply. Prices were significantly pulled up due to the expectation of supply shortage in May recently, and the maintenance of downstream Jilin Chemical Fiber during this period seemed to have no significant impact on market mindset. Since the nomination price for May was updated, from the perspective of market offers, offers reached 16,000yuan/mt, with an increase of 1,150yuan/mt compared with the index on the day that nomination price was updated, and it was only a week away from the update.


According to market players, the main reason for the price increase in May was supply shortage, but the field was different. Compared with the rise caused by tightened supply in April, the supply shortage was mainly in ABS in May. Based on the understanding of the author, Inoes of overseas market could supply domestic ABS raw materials through inventory in April, but inventory was expected to be run out in May, coupled with considerable profit of ABS plants, the profit level of plants kept at around 2,000yuan/mt if calculated with $1,850/mt. Therefore, driven by remarkable profit, ABS plants ran at a relatively high level, and purchased spot from market to fill the raw material gap, intensifying domestic supply shortage. Under this background, the effect of acrylic fiber operating rate reduction in May decreased.

In terms of market mindset, as market players had restricted amount of prompt, raising prices became a method to ascend spot profit amid guaranteed contracts and bullish market. The spread between market offers and prices offered by plants was relatively wide. Take the nomination price of Sinopec as an example, nomination price was at 14,000yuan/mt at present, while market offer was at above 15,500yuan/mt, and those were inquired were priced at 16,000yuan/mt and no trading intention, with spread at above 1,500yuan/mt.

In June, as it is possible for PetroChina Jilin and PetroChina Fushun to be overhauled, the continuously tightened supply is likely to push up domestic offers to the high of this year. However, Shandong Haili may restart, in addition that Sailboat Phase II is expected to be put into production in July, so there may be uncertainty on the supply side.
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