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Insight | Time: Aug 14 2019 3:50PM
Vietnam cotton imports lower by 18.3% y-o-y in Jul, 2019
 
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In July 2019, Vietnam imported 133.2kt of cotton, down 18.3% year on year and 7.1% month on month. In the first seven months of 2019, cotton imports totaled 942.7kt, a fall of 5.8% from the same period of last year. According to current growth rate, imports may amount to 1.48 million tons in the whole year of 2019, a decrease of 73kt from 2018.

1. Cotton imports continue to decrease in July

In 2018, export volumes of textiles and garments moved up both on the month and on the year. The textile industry development keeps high growth, but the growth rate was slower compared to the same period of last year. In July 2019, textiles and garments export value reached $3.297 billion, an increase of 14.8% year on year and 14.5% month on month. In Jan-Jul, export value totaled $18.403 billion, an increase of 10.8% year on year. Based on current growth rate, the export value may reach $33.8 billion in 2019, up $3.29 billion compared with 2018.

In July, Vietnam imported 133.2kt of cotton, down 18.3% year on year and 7.1% month on month. In the first seven months of 2019, cotton imports totaled 942.7kt, a fall of 5.8% from the same period of last year. According to current growth rate, imports may amount to 1.48 million tons in the whole year of 2019, a decrease of 73kt from 2018.

2. Arrivals of Australian and Brazilian cotton increase

In terms of the cotton import structure, the major supplier remained the US, and other suppliers were Brazil, Australia, India and Cote d'Ivoire. The intensive arrivals of US cotton will end for a period, and US has some trade friction with Vietnam, but the situation has not escalated. US cotton imports reached 80.8kt, down both from last month and last year. Arrivals of Brazilian and Australian cotton continued to increase.
Cotton imports of Vietnam and unit prices in Jul, 2019
Origins Volumes (ton) Yearly change Monthly change Unit price (cent/lb)
US 80,794 -6% -21% 81.4
Brazil 13,103 518% 31% 83.5
Australia 10,366 -73% 127% 89.3
Cote d'ivoire 4,336 -25% 158% 83.5
India 2,271 -84% 26% 67.8
Argentina 1,417 / 21% 78.1
Indonesia 1,019 628% -15% 49
Pakistan 745 / 66% 51.4
South Korea 552 69% 5% 80.4
Mainland China 469 1134% -56% 61.9
Taiwan China 100 9% 170% 48.8
Other 17,721 15% 0% 82


In Jan-Jul, imports of US cotton totaled 603kt, up 15.35% year on year, that of Indian cotton were 82.8kt, down 54.03%, Brazilian cotton 88.3kt, down 2.39%, Australian cotton 30.5kt, down 49.68%. This year, the arriving time of Australian cotton was delayed somewhat, as ICE cotton futures market dipped quickly, leading to the delayed loading or default of forward shipment orders.

In Jul, Chinese agents started to procure for the preparation of the traditional buoyant season in the second half year, so Vietnamese cotton yarn prices were stable to rise somewhat, while international cotton prices were still in downward trend, so profits recovered somewhat. But in Chinese market, the spot Vietnamese cotton yarn prices continued to decrease, and inventory at ports remained high. Therefore, it was the short-term speculative buying.

The short-term speculative buying makes little contribution to the de-stocking of Vietnamese plants, especially that plants have procured large quantity of imported cotton at high level previously. The feedstock and product inventory makes operating rate reduce, and plants focus on de-stocking. Therefore, the plants reduce the cotton buying. In Aug, cotton imports of Vietnam may continue to decrease.
[RISK DISCLAIMER] All opinions, news, analysis, prices or other information contained on this report is provided by analyst of Zhejiang Huarui Information Consulting Co., Ltd (CCFGroup) as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. CCFGroup will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
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