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Insight | Time: Sep 9 2019 5:04PM
ACN market soars unexpectedly
 
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In the first week of September, ACN market prices rose from 11,850yuan/mt at the end of August to around 12,500yuan/mt, with an increase of 5.5%. If this tendency continues, price may rise to 13,000yuan/mt or above. Actually, the small orders of some traders have been priced at this level. There are many factors for this round of surge.


Firstly, for production plan, Sailboat's two production lines with annual capacity of 260kt shut down for maintenance successively in August; Shanghai Secco's 130kta production line has been shut from September 5 to 11; Sailboat's new unit has not been put into production yet; Shandong Haili's unit remained shut and the time of restart has not been confirmed; Sinopec Anqing will prepare stock in Sep for the annual turnaround in October. The supply declined on the whole in September.

From the perspective of inventory, inventory of PetroChina Fushun was at a relatively low level of around 1kt. Shandong Koruhr's inventory was lower than 1kt, and almost no inventory could be accumulated by daily production. It was heard that Jiangsu Sailboat's two production lines ran normally from last weekend, and inventory was limited due to production reduction in previous stage.

The traders were ambitious sellers recently in anticipation of new units and restart of Haili in September. By the end of the Aug, traders almost sold out of the stock. However, the delay in the start of new units and restart of Haili led to an extended period of supply shortage in September. The traders with limited sources had to wait for the delivery from plants to guaranteeing the supply to downstream contract customers. However, it is believed most market players still expected the increase is limited and were unwilling to rashly store up.



In terms of demand, ABS plant operating rate has picked up since the end of August, and prices were adjusted up. Although the profit was moderate, demand for raw materials ascended. Driven by the restart of Shandong Haili's ABS unit, domestic ACN demand increased, which intensified the supply tightness of ACN market. For acrylic fiber, operating rate kept at around 65%, although some plants cut run rate due to the weak demand and the inventory kept at above half a month. In order to keep stable production and sales, acrylic fiber plants slightly lowered the demand for ACN. Generally, the overall demand had no big change.

In conclusion, the limited inventory of ACN plants and the positive mentality of traders are expected to continuously support the upturn of ACN market until the settlement for Sep. During this period, even if new units are put into production, the price may not decline under the background of high settlement expectation.
[RISK DISCLAIMER] All opinions, news, analysis, prices or other information contained on this report is provided by analyst of Zhejiang Huarui Information Consulting Co., Ltd (CCFGroup) as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. CCFGroup will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
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