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Insight | Time: May 6 2022 5:18PM  Editor:Alex Hua
PET bottle chip prices continously rise on the back of hiking cost and shrinking supply
 
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During the May Day holiday, oil prices hit a two-week high. Brent oil futures rebounded to $110/bbl, and WTI oil prices also rose to around $108/bbl, significantly driving up domestic petrochemical and polyester raw material costs. At the same time, affected by the epidemic, Jiangyin district turns into controlled area, Zhouzhuang Town and Yunting Sub-District are divided into sealed area. Since Sanfame is located in above areas, the delivery has been seriously blocked. Many contracts are facing force majeure in short term. Driven by a combination of factors, PET bottle chip offer increases 150-200yuan/mt compared with pre-holiday level, while traded price raises by nearly a total 300yuan/mt. Export price also climbs up by $20-30/mt.

 

The Jiangyin epidemic against the industry mainly falls on Sanfame Group. Sanfame PET resin designed capacity totals 2 million tons, accounting for 17% of China total, while the maximum output could reach 2.3-2.4 million tons per year. In 2021, Sanfame domestic sales accounted for 16% of China total, and export sales possessed 31%. Its impact on domestic traders is absolutely second to none, and most enterprises engaged in PET bottle chip trade will basically cooperate with them. The delivery disruption this time is expected to cause some traders to shift part of their Sanfame contract to Yisheng Dalian or Yisheng Hainan, but most of the contracts may be delayed due to force majeure caused by the epidemic. Market participants should pay attention to changes in local epidemic prevention policies in a timely manner.

 

So far as CCFGroup knows, Sanfame PET bottle chip plants are now maintaining steady run, mainly to ensure normal supply. Previously, there were news saying Sanfame has cut down O/R, this part of shut capacity primarily produces PFY and PSF, and is not because of the epidemic. Due to blockage of roads, Sanfame now considers to ship goods via ship, but traders and downstream players need to book in advance, and export orders are given priority.

 

Currently, the control in Jiangyin district is escalating, and Yisheng Dalian plans to turnaround mid-May, hence contract supply may shrink 55% within May. In short term, spot supply may tighten, hence PET price is likely to lift further. Meanwhile, more orders may turn to factories surrounding Jiangyin, like Anyang Chemical, Wankai Chognqing or other factories in E. China.


[RISK DISCLAIMER] All opinions, news, analysis, prices or other information contained on this report is provided by analyst of Zhejiang Huarui Information Consulting Co., Ltd (CCFGroup) as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. CCFGroup will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
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