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Insight | Time: Jul 1 2022 11:15AM  Editor:Monica Jiang
How to treat sharp reduction of price gap between cotton and VSF?
 
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Most commodities have seen deeper decline in the past month. In futures market, the amplitude of rebar, iron ore and Shanghai copper with more sedimentary money has been respectively 16%, 26% and 15%. In addition to fundamentals, the Fed鈥檚 interest rate hike is the largest influencing factor.

 

If tracing back a little longer of the textile chain, the decline of cotton and PSF major contracts is respectively 25% (5,530yuan/mt) and 15% (1,374yuan/mt), while VSF has been rising by 1,090yuan/mt during the period. In fact, whether VSF price or the spread of cotton, PSF and VSF in Mar 2021 performed similarly, but the background has changed.


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The differences are listed as below:

1. There are changes in the macro environment, from releasing global liquidity last year to soaking up liquidity currently, but the liquidity of China is still abundant.

 

2. Changes in the cotton fundamentals and policies (ban on Xinjiang cotton) have resulted in a sharp decline of Chinese cotton price.

 

3. Change in the cost of VSF. Compared with 2021, the manufacturing cost is nearly 1,600yuan/mt higher, and the raw material cost (pulp) is nearly 1,200yuan/mt higher. Therefore, the profit has been reduced from 2,000yuan/mt last year to -900yuan/mt this year.

 

4. Change in the operating rate, which is almost 5 percentage points lower than that of last year.

 

5. Change in expectation. Last year, there was the expectation of inflation resulting from releasing liquidity as well as global economic recovery, but now it is the expectation of global recession.

 

The only thing in common is good pre-sale of VSF. In 2021, VSF began to fall sharply after moving sideways at a high level for about one month and a half. Now it depends whether there is strong momentum to support VSF at current level or further rise. Seen from the above-mentioned differences, the first and fifth points are obviously disadvantageous. The third and fourth points (cost and supply) can support VSF, but while the supply is decreasing, the demand is also reducing, so supply is not enough to support VSF. Second, the implementation of ban on Xinjiang cotton may lead to downstream users to seek alternatives like imported cotton or other fibers. VSF is an option, but the share in Chinese market may be seized by cotton, so it is hard to say whether it is a bullish or bearish factor.


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In conclusion, compared with last year, the macro environment has brought more unfavorable factors to VSF. At present, cost and pre-sale volume are the strong factors that support the price of VSF, so we should pay attention to the changes in these two aspects. Similar to last year, the conversion of different fibers in downstream application is noteworthy when the cost performance of VSF is significantly reduced.

[RISK DISCLAIMER] All opinions, news, analysis, prices or other information contained on this report is provided by analyst of Zhejiang Huarui Information Consulting Co., Ltd (CCFGroup) as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. CCFGroup will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
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