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Insight | Time: Aug 5 2022 3:06PM  Editor:Diana Yu
August China PTA market balance forecast
 
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PTA plant operating rate fell to a yearly low of 65.5% after Jiaxing Petrochemical and Hengli Petrochemical shut PTA units for turnaround recently.

 

More PTA producers in China have announced turnaround plans since late July due to PX supply tightness, low PTA margin and unexpected mechanical problems. According to the turnaround schedules, PTA output in August is estimated at 4.45-4.5 million tons, down from July.


Plant Capacity (kt/year) Shutdown plan
Yangzi Petrochemical 600 shut on Mar 14 and originally plans to restart in mid-May
Honggang 1500 shut on Mar 15
Fuhaichuang 4500 shut on July 12 for one month
Yisheng 2000 shut on July 23
Yisheng New Materials 7200 O/R down to 90% from July 13
Yisheng Dalian 2250 O/R down to 60% from July 28
Billion 2500 O/R down to 80% from July 27 for 1 week
INEOS 1250 shut in end-July on glitch
Hengli Petrochemical 2200 shut on Aug 2
OPSC 750 O/R down to 80% from end-July
Tongxiang Tongkun 1500 shut on Aug 2 for 3 weeks
Total 26250


In downstream market, DTY and fabric mills purchased polyester filament yarns and staple fibers intensively for preparing the stock after PTA and MEG futures rebounded. The inventory of PFY and PSF both declined. Moreover, the cash flow of polyester products slightly improved after the prices stabilized. Some polyester plants restarted the units, pulling up the polyester polymerization rate, but the further increase of the rate still depend on the operation of large polyester producers. According to our estimation, polyester polymerization rate is expected to increase to 82% in August. In other applications, DOTP plant operating rate is less than 50% and PBT plant operating rate is about 50%, so the demand for PTA is still dull. The export volume in August is estimated at 250-300kt as overseas demand continue to reduce.  

 

Based on the estimation of supply and demand of PTA, PTA inventory in August is expected to reduce 100kt.

 

However, the market liquidity tightness is gradually easing as main PTA producer continued to sell goods on spot market and the port inventory slightly increases, which will suppress the spot/futures spread.


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If you need forecast on China's PTA market supply and demand for longer period, please contact us for sample report.

鈥 yq@ccfgroup.com

[RISK DISCLAIMER] All opinions, news, analysis, prices or other information contained on this report is provided by analyst of Zhejiang Huarui Information Consulting Co., Ltd (CCFGroup) as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. CCFGroup will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
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