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Insight | Time: Nov 25 2022 3:40PM  Editor:Diana Yu
More PTA plants to shut for maintenance under waning demand
 
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PTA market has been under the downward pressure since November as new PX and PTA capacities are scheduled to start and more polyester plants are to cut output. Based on TA2301 and PX January paper goods, PTA margin has been compressed to very low level. In PTA spot market, the spot liquidity remained relatively tight and the monthly average spot/TA2301 was still sustained at a premium of 400yuan/mt.


 Downstream polyester plants continued to cut the output, leading to a gradual supply surplus of PTA. Under the bearish outlook, PTA margin will also decline and PTA producers may start to cut output also. Besides, some PTA plants facing PX supply shortage and relatively high PX prices also plan to shut the units for maintenance such as Fuhaichuang, Billion, Ineos, OPSC and Yisheng New Materials.  

  

Plant Capacity Operation 
Honggang 1500 Shut on Mar 15 and restart time not confirmed
Fuhaichuang 4500 O/R at 80%, but planned to lower later
Yisheng 2000 shut on July 23
Yisheng New Materials 7200 O/R up to above 90% and plans to shut 3.6 million tons/year unit in late Dec
Yisheng Hainan 2000 O/R at 90%
Yisheng Dahua 6000 O/R at 70%
Energy Investment 1000 O/R at 80%
Hengli 2 2200 Shut on Oct 25 and restart has not confirmed
Billion 2500 O/R down to 90% in late Nov-Dec 
OPSC 750 to shut for 10-day T/A on Nov 27
INEOS 1100 1.1 million tons unit planned to be shut on Nov 26 and restart in end-Dec


Jiatong Energy and Weilian Chemical's new units are both under test run and Weilian may have on-spec product in end-Nov, so the supply increment will be limited in December.

 

According to the output cut plans of polyester plants, PTA inventory accumulation will accelerate. If polyester polymerization rate keeps at 72~73%, PTA inventory is estimated to increase 300kt in December.

 

In the short term, PTA supply in Zhejiang is sufficient as many polyester plants cut the output and PTA plants mostly run stably, while in Jiangsu and Shanghai, the spot liquidity remains tight due to shutdown of Hengli and Yisheng and low turntable inventory at the terminals. After more polyester in Jiangsu cut the output and Yisheng New Materials shuts for turnaround later, the regional price spread may narrow.   


[RISK DISCLAIMER] All opinions, news, analysis, prices or other information contained on this report is provided by analyst of Zhejiang Huarui Information Consulting Co., Ltd (CCFGroup) as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. CCFGroup will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
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