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Insight | Time: May 26 2023 11:16AM  Editor:Louis
PX supply growth may outpace demand with plants restarting
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PX plant turnaround season is about to complete gradually in the end of this week or the beginning of next week. During end-May to end-Jun, there will be several plants with combined capacity of 7.67 million mt/yr to restart.


Company Capacity (kt/yr) Restart time
CNPC Liaoyang 700 May 28
Weilian Chemical 2,000 End-May
CNOOC Huizhou 950 Early next week
CNPC Urumqi 1,000 Jun 17
Sinopec HRCC 1,000 Mid or late Jun
FCFC 950 Restarting, resuming production on May 26 or 27
ExxonMobil Singapore 800 Early Jun
Idemitsu Kosan 270 Late Jun
Total 7,670


Therefore, China and Asian PX plant operating rates are expected to rise obviously in the near future. However, some plants would undergo turnarounds in Jun.


Company Capacity (kt/yr) Turnaround
Fuhaichuang 800 Mid-Jun, 2 months
S-Oil 1,000 Early Jun, 50 days
SK 1,000 Early Jun, 1 week
Thailand PTT 540 Mid-Jun, 2 weeks
Total 3,340


China PX plant operating rate is anticipated to increase from the current 72% level to 80% in end-Jun, and Asian PX plant operating rate is likely to rise from 70% to 75% over the same period, to hit 1-year high.


However, as PX margins has squeezed recently, the upward space for PX plant operating rate could be capped.


At present, the economics of PX based on yuan MX or USD MX as well as based on TDP unit are poor and even in negative territory. Toluene price has even exceeded that of benzene on USD basis, reflecting losses for TDP units. Therefore, some units are heard to cut TDP operating rates, and hence PX production is affected. In addition, some plants are heard to reduce PX operating rate slightly in Jun due to the meager profits, cushioning some impact from supply increase from plants restarts.


In terms of supply and demand, with the increasing domestic production as well as rebound in PX imports which are estimated to rise to 800kt a month, China PX inventory may halt the reduction after two months of decline, and then supply may turn balanced to demand or outpace demand with inventory increasing slightly.

[RISK DISCLAIMER] All opinions, news, analysis, prices or other information contained on this report is provided by analyst of Zhejiang Huarui Information Consulting Co., Ltd (CCFGroup) as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. CCFGroup will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
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