Foreword

In 2022, the macro environment was complicated worldwide. The chemical fiber industry experienced the most difficult year ever in 2022 amid the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, the raise of interest rate and industrial development cycle. The chemical fiber industry is going to see "cold winter", "survive" will be the main short-term goal of enterprises.

 

Core ideas

1.The production of Chinese chemical fiber accounts for 70% of the world total after experienced more than 20-year of high-speed development. With big size, it is unlikely to run any faster.

 

In the face of changing market environment, environmental pressure, and a series of factors such as rising labor costs, chemical fiber industry is from the incremental competition to the stock competition and the competition between enterprises will also become more intense.

 

2. According to the development cycle of chemical fiber industry, if there is no epidemic situation in 2020, the industry may reshuffle again after the market sentiment further declined in 2020-2021.

 

However, thanks to the phased benefits brought by China's epidemic control advantages, exports ushered in a wave of outbreak, resulting in a relatively obvious increase in upstream and downstream profits of the industry, thus reappearing a new round of capacity expansion peak. Although the industry reshuffle has been delayed, it will still come after all. Starting from 2022, the industry will enter the stage of deep reshuffle, and the short-term main goal of the enterprise is to "survive"!

 

Content

I. General pattern of chemical fiber industry: Transition from incremental competition to stock competition

1. China's chemical fiber industry witnesses 20-year of golden development period

2. China's chemical fiber industry transits to the stock of competition from the incremental competition

II. Development cycle of chemical fiber industry: late shuffle

III. The industry reshuffle will continue, and the main short-term goal of the enterprise is to "survive"!

IV. Chemical fiber industry from big to strong, with still good long-term development trend

Chart:

Chart 1. Chemical fiber capacity in China in 2001-2021

Chart 2. Export growth of textiles and apparels in China

Chart 3. Comparison of leverage ratio of Chinese residents with developed countries

Chart 4. Cumulative growth of domestic retail sales of textiles and apparel in China

Chart 5. Operating rate and cash flow of PFY plants in 2022

Chart 6. Several reshuffle of polyester industry

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