Preface
In 2022/23 season, Texas, the largest cotton producing regions of the United States, suffers large-scaled drought. The extreme weather condition triggers historical high abandonment of cotton crops, and growers face heavy losses. Meanwhile, the cotton textile consumption shrinks apparently compared with previous season under the impact of Russia-Ukraine conflict and US Fed鈥檚 interest rate hike. In USDA鈥檚 monthly supply and demand report, the forecast on 2022/23 cotton consumption has lowered from 26.56 million tons earlier to 25.55 million tons, a fall of 1.01 million tons. The expectations of higher global cotton stocks continue to strengthen. Moreover, U.S. garment imports continue to decline and hit thirty-month new low in Dec. Dragged down by the weak consumption, global cotton prices move downward, dampening growers鈥 returns. Recently, many overseas institutions expect a large reduction on 2023/24 planting areas. We also make some forecast and analysis on the 2023/24 cotton planting areas based on the yearly crop planting cost assessment data from the School of Agriculture and Information Technology of the University of Georgia, as well as related crop price trends and growers' planting income in recent years.
Content
I. Summer crop planting time and spatial distribution in U.S.
II. Related crops planting cost trend in U.S.
III. Price trends of related crops and grain/cotton price ratio
IV. Conclusion
Chart and figure
Chart 1. Cotton planting areas trend in U.S.
Chart 2. U.S. soybean, corn and upland cotton planted acres by country in 2021
Chart 3. U.S. summer crop planting costs in irrigated fields
Chart 4. U.S. summer crop planting costs in non-irrigated fields
Chart 5. Price trends of cotton, soybean and corn futures since 2010
Chart 6. Price ratio of soybean and cotton since 2010
Chart 7. Price ratio of corn and cotton since 2010
Chart 8. Price ratio of soybean/cotton and planting areas correlation analysis
Chart 9. Price ratio of corn/cotton and planting areas correlation analysis
Figure 1. U.S. summer crop planting and harvest time
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