Ni Guomiao, Lead analyst of CCFGroup, delivers his report Polyester operating system and demand environment

His report is divided into 2 parts: 

First, polyester demand analysis. The epidemic, Russia-Ukraine war and Fed interest rates raise have exerted far-reaching impact on the macro-economy, especially on the demand side. The macro-economy has been dragged down, the consumer confidence index has fallen sharply, the real estate crisis has hit home textile consumption, and the export structure has adjusted due to the transfer of orders. Currently, the epidemic peak has passed, but domestic demand recovery is slow, and the actual end-user demand pressure may still be large in the second half of the year.

Second, polyester market operation and prospect. In the first half of this year, polyester feedstock cost rose sharply due to soaring crude oil, while the demand side was dragged down significantly by the domestic epidemic, and the polyester industry chain faced sharply increased pressure. At present, PSF's hotness gradually fades; PFY average cash flow is in obvious loss in the first half of the year, and the O/R has reduced to years' low; PET bottle chip cash flow and O/R are significantly higher than that of last year. Export is the biggest thrust of the PET bottle chip market in the first half of the year. Finally, Mr. Ni introduced the commissioning of new polyester plants in the second half of the year. Under high inventory and weak demand, polymerization rate rebound may be bumpy in the second half of the year.