test


Member ID:
Password: 
Stay logged in for 30 days
Forget Your Password?
close

login CCFGroup App

Insight | Time: Aug 18 2021 4:19PM
Polyester production cut-offs may get restrained due to diverging profits ?
 
Text size

Polyester factories are cutting back production recently, and polymerization rate averaged at 88% Tuesday, down 6.3% from Q3 high of 94.3%, and dropping 6.7% from intra-year high of 94.7%. In Aug, polyester capacity is revised up to 65.54 million tons, up 5.2%, or about 3.41 million tons. Taking into account long-term shut plants, the theoretical loss of polyester production is about 7.14 million tons (the actual output reduction will be higher than this figure because the actual maximum O/R is higher than theoretical figure). Among them, PET bottle chip accounts for the largest proportion, followed by PSF. PFY plants operating rate has been rising all the way after the Spring Festival, and output cut back progress is slow. So far, about less than 3% the capacity is shut down.

image.png

Looking at Q3 output cut condition, PET bottle chip plants that announced turnaround plans generally closed, while PFY plants didn't carry out the plans as profit was good while stock kept low, hence polymerization rate maintained constantly high. The situation of new orders significantly reduces while factory delivery is relatively normal appears later in PFY industry than in PET bottle chip market. Therefore, in view of the recent announcement of the cut-off news, we believe that there will be a discount in implementation. 

image.png

If polyester products profit enhances somewhat, or loss is not that severe, turnaround plans may not be as many as the announcement. Till Monday, processing fee of POY150D, FDY1537, semi-dull chip, PET bottle chip and PSF is at 1522, 1537, 387, 762 and 847yuan/mt. Overall, polyester products margin all increased modestly after feedstock price declined previously, particularly POY whose profit maintains well. So it is not very realistic to rely on this type of factory cut down much output.

image.png

Based on current polymerization rate, the theoretical operating rate of PTA plants is 76-77%, while PTA industry run is near 77.2%. Supply is balanced to loose as a whole. With PTA units gradually restarting, supply will become ample later on. Considering limited cut-offs in polyester products sector, PTA price may face some pressure to climb up, but it鈥檚 still in destocking path, and price may keep stable-to-strong as a whole. MEG fundamental is less supportive than PTA, with the expectation of ramping up supply, MEG price mainly fluctuate narrowly within low rates.


Overall, polyester raw materials may not likely to go volatile, and prices are expected to fluctuate within 6200-6400yuan/mt. According to the recent market situation, it is expected that there is a high probability that the processing fees of polyester products will be moderately improved in the future, and some of the turnaround plants will also be resume, hence we believe that the polymerization rate may stabilize after falling to around 87-88%. 



[RISK DISCLAIMER] All opinions, news, analysis, prices or other information contained on this report is provided by analyst of Zhejiang Huarui Information Consulting Co., Ltd (CCFGroup) as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. CCFGroup will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Related Articles
PET fiber chip market weekly (Sep 13-17, 2021)
China polyester market snapshot (Sep 18, 2021)
PFY sales slack today
Polyester plant operation round-up (Sep 17, 2021)
PET fiber chip market morning express (Sep 17, 2021)
China polyester market snapshot (Sep 17, 2021)
Petrochemical market morning express (Sep 17, 2021)
PET fiber chip market daily (Sep 16, 2021)
PFY sales improve today
China polyester industry operation report (Sep 1-15, 2021)
 
Research
PTA market still in overcapacity ?
How to treat the game of each link in the viscose industry?
Performance of textile and apparel at home and abroad in H1 ...
2021/22 global cotton production likely to reduce, and ...
H1 2021 MEG market review and H2 outlook
PX/PTA market H1 2021 review and H2 outlook
 
 

娴欏叕缃戝畨澶33010902000742鍙