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Insight | Time: Nov 30 2021 11:01AM
VFY waiting for restocking demand before year-end
 
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VFY price further increase in Nov. The supply was still restrained with operating rate of the industry around 70%. Sales in China local market kept relatively mild, while exports performed better. In early Nov, downstream plants raised run rates with the relieving power rationing policy. Moreover, overseas consumption warmed up apparently with improving situation of the COVID-19 pandemic. Coupled with the stimulation of price rise (VFY plants further adjusted up offers by 2,000yuan/mt), downstream buyers were more active to build up stocks, though the implementation needed further observation.


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The buying interest was somehow suppressed by rising VFY offers, but buyers gradually followed up later and VFY inventory was falling with increasing sales. When VFY price was going up, pulp and chemical prices were edging down, so losses of some VFY products were reversed and the pressure of deficits was much alleviated.

 

The production cost further declined in late Nov and VFY market still kept relatively stable, so the profits further improved. At the same time, traders and downstream plants mostly kept normal production or sales, but the resurgence of COVID-19 cases in some European countries as well as Zhejiang and Jiangsu provinces of China was noteworthy. The exchange rate weighed on exports, but there was no great influence temporarily.

 

As for supply side, production limitation will sustain and restocking demand before year-end is worthy expecting, but the impact of new round of COVID-19 is noteworthy and VFY price may gradually tend to stabilize.


[RISK DISCLAIMER] All opinions, news, analysis, prices or other information contained on this report is provided by analyst of Zhejiang Huarui Information Consulting Co., Ltd (CCFGroup) as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. CCFGroup will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
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