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Insight | Time: May 12 2022 2:00PM  Editor:Cathy Jiao
Apr'22 cotton yarn imports may move up 15.22% m-o-m to 132kt
 
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1. Imported cotton yarn arrivals to China assessment


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According to Mar export data of major cotton yarn import origins of China and initial research of cotton yarn arrivals of China, Apr cotton yarn imports of China is estimated at 132kt, down 38.66% on the year and up 15.22% on the month. Apr arrivals of imported cotton yarn were more than Mar ones. After 2022 Spring Festival, the price spread between spot and forward Vietnamese cotton yarn narrowed and a small wave of ordering was seen. This batch of shipments basically arrived in Apr. However, compared with the hot market in the first half year of 2021, imported cotton yarn was seriously affected by the pandemic in consumption areas under strict control. Downstream weavers also had high product inventory and poor orders. So the sales of imported cotton yarn in China local market were stagnated since Mar. In the meantime, the price of forward imported cotton yarn moved all the way up along with cotton price and the depreciation of renminbi pushed up ordering cost continuously. As a result, traders were less active to place orders of forward imported cotton yarn. At present, some imported cotton yarn traders shifted to operate cost-efficient Chinese yarn. Overall stocks of imported cotton yarn also moved low.

 

Based on the export data of major import origins, cotton yarn imports of China from Vietnam increased by 31.6% on the month and that from India increased 2000mt or 20%. Due to tight cotton supply in India, Indian cotton price became the highest in the world. Accordingly, Indian cotton yarn price kept rising. Since last Q4, Indian cotton yarn arrivals have reduced. In addition, Pakistani cotton yarn exports to China declined 26.7% in Apr. Previously, some traders held bullish attitude to market outlook, and restocked speculatively at proper prices, so Mar and Apr arrivals of Pakistani cotton yarn were high. Mar and Apr Uzbekistan cotton yarn arrivals to China were much more than that in Jan and Feb. As mentioned above, due to high prices of Indian cotton yarn, many traders sought others for instead, like Indonesia, Malaysia and Taiwan, China. Apr China cotton yarn imports mainly came from Vietnam (79kt), Pakistan (11kt), India (6kt), Uzbekistan (16kt), and others (17kt).


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2. Imported yarn stocks keep reducing.



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Apr imported cotton yarn arrivals to China were years鈥 low. Although downstream consumption was affected by the pandemic and downstream demand kept dull as the control got stricter, the stocks kept reducing slowly. Overall spot stocks totaled around 115kt.  

 

3. Downstream operating rate was restrained by the pandemic.

Affected by the control on logistics, many weavers in imported cotton yarn consumption areas reported difficult transportation of yarn and fabrics. In the meantime, orders were poor. So they lowered run rate. Only a few weavers with orders in hands remained normal production. The sales of imported cotton yarn moved slowly. 


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In conclusion, Apr China cotton yarn imports is expected to rise on the month, but compared to the same period in the past years, it is low. With combination of renminbi depreciation, the cost of settlement increased obviously. At the same time, foreign cotton price stayed high, and offers of imported cotton yarn remained strong, so it was hard for traders to place orders. According to recent orders and sales in China local market, May cotton yarn imports of China is likely to keep low.



[RISK DISCLAIMER] All opinions, news, analysis, prices or other information contained on this report is provided by analyst of Zhejiang Huarui Information Consulting Co., Ltd (CCFGroup) as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. CCFGroup will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
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