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Insight | Time: Mar 22 2023 10:18AM  Editor:Tina Kong
China's PFY exports controversially set a record high in Jan-Feb, 2023
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PFY exports were at 334.4kt in Jan 2023, up 4.62% on the month and 17.3% on the year respectively. PFY exports amounted to 330.1kt in Feb, down 1.28% month on month and up 50.06% on annual basis. PFY exports totaled 664.5kt in Jan-Feb, 2023, up 31.57% year on year.


The main controversial point of the Jan-Feb export data was that traders believed that the actual working time in Jan was only about half a month, and the export volume would not be so much higher than that in Dec 2022; freight forwarders also said that as far as they know, the export containers for PFY was not that large in Jan-Feb. The authenticity of the data will not be discussed here, just from the absolute quantity point of view, PFY exports in Jan-Feb have set a record high for the same period.

Exports of PFY by variety in Jan-Feb, 2023 (Unit: tons)
Variety  Jan export YOY change of Jan MOM change of Jan Feb export YOY change of Feb MOM change of Feb
POY (54024600) 68378 61.10% -4.90% 80541 134.80% 17.80%
FDY (54024700) 63455 39.60% 1.90% 64648 97.30% 1.90%
DTY (54023310) 146145 6.60% 6.60% 134210 28.70% -8.20%
PIY (54022000) 47880 -3.20% 20.80% 43230 1.30% -9.70%
Textured yarn (54023390) 6858 -17.60% -8.50% 6171 28.60% -10.00%
Other PFY (54025200) 1683 -25.00% 37.10% 1311 18.50% -22.10%

As for different varieties, exports of POY rose the most prominently in Jan-Feb, mainly exported to India, Egypt and Turkey. Exports of FDY also increased apparently, mainly to India, Turkey and Vietnam. The increase of DTY exports was not as obvious as that of POY and FDY, mainly affected by Pakistan.


Top 10 export destinations of PFY in Jan-Feb, 2023 (Unit: tons)
Destinations Jan export YOY change of Jan MOM change of Jan Feb export YOY change of Feb MOM change of Feb
India 55893 318.30% 27.50% 55575 586.20% -0.60%
Egypt 28289 -8.80% -43.80% 45830 103.80% 62.00%
Brazil 26998 40.70% 19.40% 32478 158.70% 20.30%
Turkey 41949 99.80% 34.50% 28768 21.30% -31.40%
Vietnam 19989 -15.70% -7.80% 23830 3.20% 19.20%
South Korea 17680 -22.50% 6.10% 20121 44.10% 13.80%
Pakistan 23024 -26.00% -12.80% 15117 -23.00% -34.30%
Bangladesh 12311 3.90% 19.10% 15065 37.50% 22.40%
Indonesia 12535 -18.10% 18.60% 13352 83.80% 6.50%
Mexico 7233 -21.20% 60.70% 4328 -47.80% -40.20%

Hiking PFY exports were mainly contributed by India in Jan-Feb. According to astronomers in the United Arab Emirates, Ramadan 2023 will begin on Thursday, March 23, so there is a large demand for replenishment in advance from Indian market, with centralized purchases from Jan to Feb, but demand is expected to weaken after Ramadan.


The plight of Pakistan's shortage of foreign exchange has not been solved, which was also the main reason for the sharp decline of PFY exports to Pakistan. It is worth noting that after the payment problem occurred in Pakistan, many exporters in China turned their attention to the neighboring Bangladesh market. The export orders to Bangladesh apparently grew while the price competition become fiercer at the same time. If not considering the benefits, the Bangladesh market will be a better choice this year.


In terms of shipping, recently, due to the increase in cargo volume in some regions, coupled with a large number of voyages reduction in shipping companies previously, the freight rates such as European routes and Southeast Asian routes have risen to varying degrees, and it is expected that there will be a pull up in Apr.

The freight from Ningbo port to Pakistan/Karachi was around US$550/40HQ, that to HOCHIMINH rose to US$400/40HQ, that to JAKARTA increased to US$500/40HQ, that to SOKHNA advanced to around US$1950/40HQ due to inadequate shipping space, which was at US$1550-1600/40HQ before, that to NHAVA SHEVA was at US$700/40HQ and that to NAVEGANTES rose to around US$1500/40HQ.


Remark: the freight of different ships and forwarders differs, and the above freight is only for reference.


As for market outlook, there were many exhibitions in Mar. Orders have appeared in exhibitions in Egypt. Shanghai of China, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Vietnam will hold exhibitions later. Therefore, PFY exports are estimated to sustain high in Mar but may weaken in Q2 when the Southeast Asia and Middle East enter the Ramadan. The orders should be noted by that time.

[RISK DISCLAIMER] All opinions, news, analysis, prices or other information contained on this report is provided by analyst of Zhejiang Huarui Information Consulting Co., Ltd (CCFGroup) as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. CCFGroup will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
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