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Research | Time: Nov 9 2020 9:01AM
Why did demand for fibers soar intensively in Oct?
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Trading price of fibers, yarns and grey fabrics including cotton textile, viscose and polyester filament yarn sectors all surged after the National Day holiday. Market atmosphere warmed up sharply, hitting market expectation. Why did demand skyrocket intensively? Which were the driving momentum? How to interpret this wave of increase?

I. Performance: demand skyrocketed after the National Day holiday

II. Domestic sales: domestic economy and demand growth
1. Domestic economy recovered
2. Necessary to optional consumption

III. Export: overseas economy and export both increased
1. Recovery of overseas demand
2. Export gradually recovered

IV. Foundation: consumption of stocks and the stimulus from cost
1. Cotton and cotton yarn
2. Viscose and rayon yarn
3. Overall market destocked
4. Chemical fiber filament yarn

V. Opportunity: time nodes overlaying
1. Demand recovery and the expectation of cold winter
2. Orders for the online shopping spree on Nov 11 and Christmas Day

Chart 1. Price of fibers, yarns and grey fabrics
Chart 2. Stocks of fibers and grey fabrics
Chart 3. Domestic Caixin Service PMI and Manufacturing PMI
Chart 4. The year-on-year growth of domestic retail sales of consumer goods
Chart 5. China online retail sales of food, clothing and other goods
Chart 6. YOY change of retail sales of food, beverage, and textiles &apparels
Chart 7. U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI and Non-manufacturing PMI
Chart 8. Eurozone Manufacturing and Services PMI
Chart 9. Cumulative YOY change of textiles and apparels exports in China (Under USD dollar basis)
Chart 10. Export value of textiles and apparels in Vietnam and Bangladesh
Chart 11. Price of cotton and cotton yarn in 2020
Chart 12. Stocks of imported cotton yarn and O/R of downstream plants in 2020
Chart 13. Stocks of cotton yarn in Vietnam, India and Pakistan in 2020
Chart 14. Price of imported cotton yarn in 2019-2020
Chart 15. Operating rate of spinning mills in Vietnam, India and Pakistan in 2020
Chart 16. Exports of rayon single yarn in 2019-2020
Chart 17. Price of cotton and viscose in 2019-2020
Chart 18. Price of PFY, PSF and NFY in 2019-2020
Chart 19. Tendency of domestic agricultural goods and industrial goods
Chart 20. Price of ICE cotton futures and crude oil

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