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Research | Time: Oct 13 2021 1:59PM
2021/22 global cotton: impetus from supply side has not ended
 
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Preface

Last year, global cotton prices went upward after the National Day holiday (Oct 1-7) driven by strong downstream consumption, and this year, the cotton prices surged again during the National Day holiday propelled by production cut and soaring costs.  Looking from the spot cotton prices in the major cotton producing countries, only Indian cotton prices are still below 100cent/lb currently, and this may not last long. 


According to the weather condition, cotton crop growing condition and seed cotton prices in the global major cotton producing countries, global cotton production is likely to reduce this year. With low cotton inventory, global cotton supply may remain tight, which is supportive to global cotton prices.


Content

I. Preface

II. Tight global cotton supply in 2021

(1) China: cotton production reduction and rush-harvest push up cotton prices significantly

(2) India: production reduction and low inventory leads to tight supply

(3) U.S.: good demand from China pushes up U.S. cotton

(4) Pakistan: production cut and strong demand drives higher imports

(5) Brazil: production reduction and limited shipping capacity restrains cotton exports in short

III. Summary and outlook


Charts

Chart 1. New cotton costs on theory

Chart 2. Forward curve of ZCE cotton, (MO states spot cotton price)

Chart 3. China cotton production and yearly change

Chart 4. Numbers of ginning factories in China

Chart 5. Rainfall in major cotton producing areas of India

Chart 6. Indian cotton planting areas and yearly change

Chart 7. Indian cotton production and yearly change, CAI

Chart 8. Price spread of Indian spot cotton and CCI cotton and sales of CCI

Chart 9. Cotton purchases and sales of CCI

Chart 10. Indian cotton imports and yearly change

Chart 11. U.S. upland cotton weekly export sales-China

Chart 12. U.S. upland cotton weekly export shipments-China

Chart 13. Drought coverage in major cotton producing areas of U.S.

Chart 14. Bolls opening of U.S. cotton

Chart 15. Harvests of U.S. cotton

Chart 16. U.S. cotton production and forecast

Chart 17. Rainfall in major cotton producing areas of Pakistan

Chart 18. Cotton production of Pakistan, PCCC

Chart 19. Cotton imports of Pakistan

Chart 20. Rainfall in major cotton producing areas of Brazil

Chart 21. Sowing progress of cotton crops in Brazil

Chart 22. Harvest progress of Brazilian cotton

Chart 23. Brazilian cotton production forecast by CONAB

Chart 24. Brazilian cotton exports


Figures

Figure 1. International commodity price change during National Day holiday

Figure 2. International cotton price change during National Day holiday

Figure 3. Indian cotton yield

Figure 4. Cotton planting progress of Pakistan

Figure 5. Cotton production in global major cotton producing countries


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